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Apple Inspires Google-Sun Drama?

I bumped into Sun Microsystems chairman Scott McNealy at the Beverly Wilshire hotel on Sunday--both of us in town for the Oscar festivities apparently--and then yesterday I was reminded again of the persistent rumor that a Google-Sun hook up is in the works.   

The argument behind the year-long chatter is that a Google-Sun linkup would make the combined entity competitive with Microsoft, benefit consumers, yada yada.  Besides, the logic goes, Google's high-flying P/E and growth potential is unsustainable without its own platform and the deal would allow them to combine hardware, storage, StarOffice, JAVA, and Solaris into an end-to-end powerhouse.  On the other hand, with Google's potential to continue as the magilla of all media companies well into the future, and with the success of its open systems strategy so far, what drives the old school imperative to go primal and own the pipes? 

For my part, the deal points are irrelevant; the human drama, however, is fascinating: Could the GOOG boys be mesmerized by Steve Jobs' reality distortion field? I mean, Apple has parlayed its portfolio of 1,700 hardware and applications patents into a $74 billion market valuation--far exceeding the value of the sum of its parts.  Those are lust-worthy numbers.  Maybe Google thinks it too needs black boxes, and Google's CEO Eric Schmidt, the former CTO of Sun, would know the turf.  And maybe denying Apple Sun's dying carcass would somehow bring more than Novell or Rackable to the party.  It would also have psychic rewards.  Who knows for sure.

One thing is certain: forget Hollywood, the best dramas today are being played out in Silicon Valley.  Stay tuned--something is guaranteed to happen soon. In the meantime, let's talk about the Al Gore connection...

Apple iTV Next?

Call it Apple Joost.  The best new beme on the street here in Silicon Valley is the possible acquisition by Apple of web TV company Joost.  More than just technology , the hook up is about pedigree.  Joost was co-founded by Niklas Zennström and Janus Friis--yes--of Skype fame.  They claim Joost fills a critical gap in the online video entertainment arena by enabling premium interactive video experiences while guaranteeing copyright protection for content owners and creators.  Do the math.  Sound like a juicy deal for Steve Jobs' growing media empire.

Why The Apple iPhone Will Disappoint You

dis·ap·point –verb (used with object)

1. to fail to fulfill the expectations or wishes of:
2. to defeat the fulfillment of (hopes, plans, etc.); thwart; frustrate

It'll be like driving a Porsche in a hospital zone. 

Here's the problem: today you and I accept a phone system with "3 nine" reliability.  That means the phone works correctly 99.9 percent of the time.  The other fraction of the time we get dropped calls, line dissonance (can you hear me now?) and signal issues.  This we have come to grumpily accept as our lot in life for living in this primitive age.  3 nine service will not, however, be good enough for the mobile TV era and the elevated expectations of Apple's multimedia iPhone.  The current 3 nine level of service would mean jumpy, unstable video, scrambled live feeds, and constant redialing to recover lost connections.  Imagine watching a football game that suddenly goes dead in the final seconds of the final drive.  You will be disappointed at best.

What is required is 5 nine (99.999 percent) or even 7 nine (99.99999 percent) reliability.  No carrier can yet provide that level of always-on integrity.  They are urgently working on it though, because everything depends on a better backbone.  All early studies show that consumers begrudgingly accept the occasional dropped voice call without canceling their phone service, but they will cancel a video plan that does the same thing.  That reality puts a lot of risk into the trillion dollar build out of the Third Screen age: dissonance on the line and dissonance among the paying public who can't understand and have no sympathy for less than expected service. 

Yes, the iPhone will disappoint you in the early days, perhaps not due to any fault of its own, but rather because the infrastructure it is running on can't yet allow Steve Jobs' vision to open up and push the pedal to the metal.  The key is how patient early adopters will be; if they fail to pay the freight, the wheels could come off of Apple's Third Screen rally. 

Dictionary Definition of 'Beme'

The viral life of the "beme" continues with this first of many dictionary definitions of the word.  Your continuing thoughts are welcome.

Next: MMOS (Massively Multiplayer Online Shopping)

My son routinely plays an online adventure game called Maple Story, produced by Nexon.  It is a MMORPG--a massively multi-player online role playing game--involving thousands of kids from around the world in simultaneous game play.  There are hundreds of these games available to join today, games like City of Heroes, Dreamlords, Jumpgate and Flyff.  My son, his local school friends, and a growing cadre of others from around the world spend (too many) hours playing in these environments, interacting in a collective experience on a scale never before possible. 

In addition to the fun and challenge of playing with and against others, these kids are gradually, unwittingly learning a brand new culture of collective online behavior.  Today they play together, tomorrow I believe they will buy together. 

Sure, today commercialization of the multi-player environments is modest; a product placement here, subliminal message there.  The real opportunities to monetize lie ahead, as a generation of consumers is retrained to behave--work, source, shop--together.  I believe this will be a powerful new force for some--a barrier to entry for others.  I am busy working on, what I hope will be, a useful experiment in what I call "Massively Multi-player Online Shopping."  Stay tuned for the results of this group shopping trial in future blogs.

The "Beme" Phenomenon Grows

My articulation of a "beme" has set off quite a flurry of debate around the world.  I have received lots of mail, pro and con, not to mention a few death threats.  Of course, the debate, in and of itself, defends the idea of a beme worming its way through the blogosphere, and by tracking its path, we get further evidence that bemes really do exist. 

As I have stated, Richard Dawkins' definition of "meme" clearly was right for the TV era; the Internet requires something more, if only subtly so.  Of course, the late Marshall McLuhan would have loved this.  He knew that every medium required a new culture around it.  From the wellspring of bemes, Wikipedia, this idea from McLuhan:

Each new form of media, according to the analysis of McLuhan, shapes messages differently thereby requiring new filters to be engaged in the experience of viewing and listening to those messages.

The Internet, propelled by the power of the Network Effect, demands a new culture and therefore a new genus of cultural artifact: the beme.

More definition:

• Memes are linear, Bemes are nonlinear.
• Memes move in a jet stream, Bemes have a splatter pattern.
• Memes are viral, Bemes are pandemic.

These are my humble observations.  Please share your thoughts. 

My articulation of a "beme" has set off quite a flurry of debate around the world.  I have received lots of mail, pro and con, not to mention a few death threats.  Of course, the debate, in and of itself, defends the idea of a beme worming its way through the blogosphere, and by tracking its path, we get further evidence that bemes really do exist. 

As I have stated, Richard Dawkins' definition of "meme" clearly was right for the TV era; the Internet requires something more, if only subtly so.  Of course, the late Marshall McLuhan would have loved this.  He knew that every medium required a new culture around it.  From the wellspring of bemes, Wikipedia, this idea from McLuhan:

Each new form of media, according to the analysis of McLuhan, shapes messages differently thereby requiring new filters to be engaged in the experience of viewing and listening to those messages.

The Internet, propelled by the power of the Network Effect, demands a new culture and therefore a new genus of cultural artifact: the beme.

More definition:

• Memes are linear, Bemes are nonlinear.
• Memes move in a jet stream, Bemes have a splatter pattern.
• Memes are viral, Bemes are pandemic.

These are my humble observations.  Please share your thoughts. 

A Beme is a Meme Spread by Blogs

As any student of Marshall McLuhan might argue, a beme is a necessary and intrinsic result of the Internet itself.  But, what happens to a beme after it enters the blogosphere?  Does it have a short ride or a long tail?  The most considered look at the life of a beme thus far comes from the folks at the ebiquity group.

Panic at the Mobile Phone Disco

Dissonance.  Among other things, it can mean noise on your phone line and it can describe when two or more folks have differing takes on reality.  At the gi-normous mobile telephone show, 3GSM, in Barcelona this week I have been hearing a lot about dissonance.  This gathering of 60,000 techies and 1200 exhibitors this week is where I came to chat people up about the rise of the "third screen;" mobile multimedia or TV on your handset.  This byproduct of "network convergence" is all the rage at this year's show because the new connected consumers are well beyond waiting for the capability to arrive and lots of money is being bet on the come.  It is a giant, emerging opportunity for carriers and content providers alike (Apple iPhone anyone?).  No dissonance there. 

And while I have been duly wowed by the display of new phones and features (many of which the Bubble Generation in Europe and Asia already get to use), everywhere I went this week the realization is growing that dissonance in the pipes behind today's wireless infrastructure, meshed with dissonance in the minds of the always-on, tech-ready BubbleGen consumer, is creating a bit of a panic.  In short, the new consumer wants it all--voice, data, music, video, live phonecasts--delivered to the handset, and carriers and content providers want to oblige. Problem is, the current infrastructure can't handle the load.  And if consumers don't get what they want--particularly this unsentimental generation--they won't pay and that's when the wheels come off.  Executives are honestly worried.

Here's the problem: today you and I accept a phone system with "3 nine" reliability.  That means the phone works 99.9 percent of the time.  The other fraction of the time we get dropped calls, line dissonance (can you hear me now?) and signal issues.  This we have come to grumpily accept as our lot in life for living in the primitive age.  3 nine service will not, however, be good enough for the mobile TV era.  What is required is 5 nines (99.999 percent) or even 7 nine (99.9999 percent) reliability.  All early studies show that consumers might accept the occasional dropped call without canceling their phone service, will cancel a video plan that does the same thing.  That reality puts a lot of risk into the trillion dollar build out of the Third Screen age: dissonance on the line and dissonance among the paying public who can't understand and have no sympathy for less than expected service. 

The moral of the story?  While mobile telephony is definitely on the cutting edge of the new consumer experience, what is being felt here is migrating throughout industries.  The Bubble Generation consumers have very high expectations--of everything.  They don't know a world without technology, they don't equate technology with magic and they don't understand why things don't work whenever and where ever they want.  For marketers and manufacturers, that's a new dissonance with a difference.

 

How a 'Beme' Works

I am at 3GSM in Barcelona all this week talking about how the "third screen" is coming to a mobile phone near you soon. I was going to be writing about the new features and applications driving wireless for the Bubble Generation, but my blog yesterday on "bemes" has generated a lot of mail.  I thought I'd better elaborate with a story.

On Sunday, I had a chance to catch the FC Barcelona/Real Racing soccer match (hey, got to do something until the Patriots suit back up in August).  It was a great game and my seats at the foot of the south net meant I got a closeup look at the amazing Ronaldinho score both his goals in Barca's 2-zip win. 

Now, if you've ever attended a sporting event in Europe you know that its quite a bit different an experience than a day at the park American-style.  You know, lots of colorful team songs, home-brought food and a fog bank of cigarette smoke.  Odd thing was, 10 minutes into the second period, the +90,000 people in the stadium start doing the "wave."  Inherently, the wave exemplifies a beme.  Let me explain.

First, you have to admit that it is somewhat remarkable that the Spanish were even doing the wave.  First concocted 25 years ago by Krazy George as a way to kill time during boring Oakland A's games (at least that's the meme mythology), the wave has crossed the planet as a sports arena staple.  The fact that the wave has become a universal practice defines what Richard Dawkins meant by a "meme," a widely-shared cultural artifact.  But doing the wave--the act of standing and waving ones arms in orchestrated unison, is to be part of a beme.  Case in point: at the Barcelona game each successive round of the wave could be attributed to a single flag-waving nutcase who stirred his seat mates, and then section mates and then 90,000 people to rise and shout and spill beers together.  His was a purposeful act to stimulate a social response on a mass scale.  Due to the massive scale of the Internet, it is now possible for ordinary people--like us bloggers--to do that on a global basis.  This helps explain the real power and potential of citizen publishing.

Now, one reader wrote with the belief that you can't artificially induce a meme, that bemes won't stick the way naturally-occurring memes do.  As proof, he cited the recent Cartoon Network PR stunt in Boston as an example of a failed attempt at a beme.  However, people actually are still talking about that guerrilla move and, ironically, just by repeating the story, he was promulgating the beme...and so it goes.  Blogging is not simply and passively sending a message in a bottle hoping someone will find it.  Blogging is a purposeful act to change the world--to get people to stand up, cheer, maybe spill some beer.  That's a beme.   

'Bemes' Are Defining the Life of the Blogosphere

Michael Malone's ABC News column on Thursday mentioning "bemes" has certainly produced a lot of interest.  Originally, I coined the word beme to describe a meme propagated by blogs and bloggers.  Now I can see that the turn of phrase has a much bigger potential to capture the rapidly-moving cultural touchstones of the Bubble Generation.

As you may know, "meme" was first defined by Richard Dawkins in 1976 as "a unit of cultural information" spread from one mind to another.  In other words, a viral idea that eventually becomes common knowledge.

Fast forward three decades, and it seems to me that technology has turbo-charged the meme process.  Looking for the juste mot to describe a "purposeful" meme fed into the vast human network of the Internet, either by blog, email, video, phonecast, social media or other viral means, beme seems to fit the bill. 

A beme is a turbo-charged meme made possible entirely by the existence of the network effect.  A beme can be impactful because it is lurid--a photo of a panty-less Britney Spears, or humorous--a whimisical video of the band OKGO on treadmills, or gut-wrenching--the sad tirade by comedian Michael Richards.  A beme can cement an idea with the public in a way that cannot be legislated or regulated.  No legal effort by Cisco to enforce a trademark, for example, will make the public unlearn that Apple produces the iPhone.

• A meme is old media, a beme is new media.
• A meme takes off by accident, a beme by design.
• A meme can take years to surface, a beme hours.

Moreover, people who create and spread bemes (let's call them "bemerz")--people like Shel Israel, Robert Scoble, Glenn Reynolds, Doc Searls, Dan Gillmor, John Battelle, Duncan Riley, Aaron Brazell, Jason Calacanis and Dave Sifry are today's cultural icons.  When they beme to the world, they can spread an idea faster than any people in history.

That's because a beme moves a billion times faster than a meme ever could.  That's the power of citizen-driven media networks.  Do the math.  There are nearly 60 million blogs, 600 million email users and many millions of social media citizens.  Because we all can be bemerz, powerful enough to spread any idea to anyone, a beme today can be created, promulgated and soldered into social conscioussness in a fraction of the time it took memes to spread 30 years ago when Professor Dawkins first made the observation. 

Consider yourself a part of this grand experiment.  Just how fast can this beme circle the globe, enter Wikipedia as a new term and leap off out of the blogosphere and into the mainstream?  How fast can you type?